The real estate market is waking back up.
After a couple of challenging years, 2026 is shaping up to be a year of growth, opportunity, and real momentum.
To get the full story, I sat down with Lon Welsh, a real estate economist, fund manager, and founder of a $2.8B brokerage, to break down what’s coming next.
We covered prices, inventory, interest rates, and winning strategies for agents, buyers, and sellers.
The best part?
It’s not doom and gloom.
Confidence is returning.
Inventory is rising.
Motivated buyers and sellers are getting back in the game.
Here are the biggest insights from our conversation, along with real tips you can use right now to grow your business and serve your clients at a higher level.
You can also watch the full interview here: https://youtu.be/GgWRXZ4lIMw
1. Home Prices Will Stay Steady, But Opportunity Is There
National home prices are expected to stay relatively flat in 2026, although some markets will see moderate gains.
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Midwest and Northeast markets are seeing appreciation of 6 to 7 percent
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Florida, California, and Sunbelt states may see slight price softening
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Condos and entry-level homes may remain sluggish, while single-family homes are staying steady
“The market isn’t going up fast, but it’s stabilizing, and that’s a win,” Lon explained.
Tips for Agents
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Focus on move-up buyers and sellers with strong equity
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Run hyper-local CMAs and educate your clients on neighborhood-level data
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Emphasize long-term equity gains and the value of ownership
Tips for Buyers
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Don’t wait for prices to drop because they likely won’t
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Look for motivated sellers in softer condo markets
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Negotiate incentives such as closing costs or rate buydowns
Tips for Sellers
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Price your home accurately from the start
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Understand that overpricing results in longer days on market
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Work with an agent who knows how to market effectively in today’s conditions
2. Inventory Is Climbing Back to Normal Levels
We are finally seeing inventory come back, which is great news.
Lon projects a 10 percent increase in homes for sale in 2026 compared to 2025.
“We’re getting closer to a healthy, balanced market again,” he said.
Tips for Agents
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Use this data to re-engage hesitant sellers
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Launch a campaign focused on why now is the right time to list
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Build relationships with homeowners who are beginning to consider selling
Tips for Buyers
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More inventory means more options and less competition
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Don’t rush, but don’t wait for perfection since good deals still move quickly
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Get pre-approved early so you’re ready when the right home hits
Tips for Sellers
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Don’t assume there is no competition because buyers now have more choices
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Presentation and pricing matter more than ever
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Stage the home, boost curb appeal, and highlight unique features
3. Interest Rates Will Likely Hold Steady
While some had hoped for a big rate drop, 2026 interest rates are expected to remain around 6 to 6.5 percent.
But here’s the real takeaway. Consumer confidence is what drives sales, not just the rate itself.
“Rates are only part of the story. People buy when they feel good about their finances,” Lon explained.
Tips for Agents
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Shift the conversation from rate watching to monthly affordability
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Use historical context to show that 6 percent is still a strong rate
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Partner with lenders who offer creative financing strategies
Tips for Buyers
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Don’t try to time the market, focus on what fits your budget today
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Ask about 2-1 buydowns, assumable loans, or seller incentives
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Buying now means you can refinance later and start building equity sooner
Tips for Sellers
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Be ready to educate buyers who are nervous about current rates
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Highlight affordability perks like solar, energy efficiency, or low taxes
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Price strategically because buyers are more cautious than in 2021
4. Expired Listings Are a Major Opportunity
Lon revealed one of the most actionable strategies of the episode: expired listings.
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Half of expired listings will relist
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About half of those will sell, often with a different agent
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These sellers are frustrated and open to a new approach
“If you’re looking for leverage in a tight market, this is it,” Lon said.
Tips for Agents
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Build a 10-week direct mail campaign targeting expired listings
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Use AI or ChatGPT to write persuasive, value-driven letters
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Focus on what makes your marketing and listing strategy different
Pro Tip:
Send one mailer per week for 10 weeks. A small investment can lead to major results.
5. The Rate-Locked Crowd Is Starting to Move
Homeowners who locked in ultra-low rates in 2020 or 2021 have felt stuck, but that’s starting to change.
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The percentage of homeowners with sub-4 percent rates is shrinking
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Many are now ready to move due to life events, job changes, or upsizing
“The handcuffs are loosening, and more sellers are finally ready,” Lon shared.
Tips for Agents
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Reconnect with past clients and leads who stayed put during the rate hike
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Offer an Equity Review rather than a basic CMA
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Highlight lifestyle-driven reasons to move such as schools, space, or location
Tips for Sellers
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Consider ways to keep your low rate, such as converting your home into a rental
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Weigh the cost of higher rates against the benefit of moving into the right home
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Remember, you’re likely sitting on significant equity
6. The Backlog of Buyers and Sellers Is Ready to Pop
We’ve been in a low-volume market, but not because demand disappeared. It simply got delayed.
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In 2025, only 27 out of 1,000 homes sold
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Normally, the number is closer to 40 to 45
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That’s millions of people who still need to move
“The demand is there. It’s just been waiting. And 2026 will be the year it starts flowing again,” Lon said.
Tips for Agents
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Build nurture campaigns for leads who’ve been sitting on the fence
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Host webinars or local events to share market insights for 2026
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Stay top of mind so when they are ready, they come to you
Tips for Buyers and Sellers
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If you’ve been waiting, now is the time to prepare, plan, and act
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Start talking to agents, lenders, and mapping out your strategy
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Don’t wait too long and risk being caught behind the wave
7. Pricing Right Matters More Than Ever
Homes that sit on the market are facing major price reductions.
Lon shared that listings lasting over 90 days often require price cuts of 10 percent or more to sell.
“Overpricing kills deals. The market is price-sensitive right now,” he explained.
Tips for Agents
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Use local data to explain the cost of overpricing
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Add visuals to your listing presentation such as Days on Market versus Price Drop
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Be the trusted advisor who tells sellers the truth, not what they want to hear
Tips for Sellers
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Work with an agent who shows you real comparable sales, not wishful numbers
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Price for traction, not just negotiation
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The faster you sell, the more money you keep
Final Thoughts: 2026 Is Your Year If You Prepare Now
The market is moving in a positive direction.
It may not be a frenzy like 2021, but that’s not a bad thing.
2026 will reward preparation, skill, and strategy.
Buyers who are financially ready, sellers who are realistic, and agents who are proactive will win big.
The opportunity is real. Now it’s time to take action.
Have Questions or Want To Join The Team?
We’re helping buyers and sellers win in today’s market, book a private call here
If you’re an agent looking to take your business to the next level, go to 100commissionrealestate.com
